Hugo Cabret is a kid’s movie. The Academy hates children.
^ Kramer vs Kramer? How Green was my Valley?
ha… yeah, that’s true, especially where actual kids are in them, unless the kids are doing something unconventional. Pixar has kinda been given a a seal for a while, but Cars 2 will probably not be as good as the usual, so finally have a wide open field for animated feature next year.
Let’s not masturbate ourselves into a frenzy over Tree Of Life just yet. It could be dull.
I think Malick could just about always be described as dull, just brilliant dull. There’s something to be said for consistency too. I mean he just hasn’t made a bad movie. At least in my mind.
The Tree of Life
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
I think Super 8 might be in the nominations. Haven’t been this excited over a summer blockbuster in a while.
The Tree of Life
Super 8
Meek’s Cutoff
Hugo Cabret
The Descendents
Shame
We Need to Talk About Kevin
J. Edgar
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (remake)
A Dangerous Method
Wild Cards:
Killer Joe
Sleeping Beauty
Documentary winner: Bill Cunningham New York
Expect Michelle Williams in the Best Actress category (Meek’s Cutoff) along with Tilda Swinton (…..Kevin) and possibly Saiorse Ronan for Hanna (although I won’t hold my breath)
Chloe Moretz will be a supporting actress nominee for Hugo Cabret.
As for Wild Cards, they hail from Sleeping Beauty and Killer Joe again
Best Actress Wild Card Nominee
Emily Browning (Sleeping Beauty)
Best Supporting Actress Wild Card Nominee
Juno Temple (Killer Joe)
Carey Mulligan is a nomination shoo-in for Shame but is she supporting or lead actress? I don’t know
As for Rooney Mara, will she manage to do what Noomi Rapace couldn’t? Get nominated?
I don’t know what I was smoking when I predicted Sleeping Beauty…. Lol
will she manage to do what Noomi Rapace couldn’t? Get nominated?
Noomi Rapace “couldn’t” get nominated? More like….the Academy boys and girls didn’t nominate her, how could she have nominated herself when it’s almost impossible for non-English language speaking individuals to get a nomination without promotion, publicity and / or a good fuck?
Cuaron’s Gravity may get a nomination or too.Don’t know when it’ll be released though.
Agreed with Dimitris. It was dam tragedy she wasn’t nominated :(
Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris) for Best Supporting Actor!!
I think Win Win will be nominated. Also, probably Dark Knight Rises.
The winner though will probably be a melodramatic drama that comes out in December.
I don’t know about Meek’s Cutoff. Winter’s Bone had drugs and violence. Evidenced by Somewhere’s lack of a nomination, I don’t think the Academy likes slow reflective films.
Anonymous
Hugo Cabret
We Bought a Zoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Young Adult
Hopefully since Cars 2 is mediocre, Winnie the Pooh (which is getting very good reviews) will secure a nomination for best animated picture
My revised list and yes I know it’s 5-10 now but I’m still doing 10. F you academy! Lol
The Tree of Life
Meek’s Cutoff
Hugo
The Descendents
Drive
Midnight in Paris (for it’s sheer popularity)
Contagion
J. Edgar
Restless
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (remake)
Cave of Forgotten Dreams (US 2011 release) ought to be a lock so should Streep as Thatcher
I was thinking of The Iron Lady but I think that might only be a lock for Streep’s performance.
Ooh forgot about The Artist…. Harvey is really gonna pimp that one.
Maybe Sarah’s Key too? I don’t know
JESSICA CHASTAIN for Best Actress… am I right?
putting more thought into it…..
The Tree of Life
Meek’s Cutoff
Hugo
The Descendents
Drive
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Take Shelter
J. Edgar
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (remake)
TREE OF LIFE is of course more than bad enough to win the Oscar for Best Picture, and the Oscars could get all self-important about recognizing the film’s extreme “artistry.” I’m sure it will get a bunch of technical nominations.
Best Actor
Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
George Clooney – The Descendents
Matt Damon – Contagion (or We Bought a Zoo)
Leonardo Di Caprio – J. Edgar
Best Actress
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Vera Farmiga – Higher Ground
Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin (if it’s released on time, if not then Rooney Mara)
Michelle Williams – Meek’s Cutoff (or My Week with Marilyn)
Best Supporting Actor
John Hawkes – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Shea Whigham – Take Shelter
Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Sacha Baron Cohen – Hugo
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning – We Bought a Zoo (or Twixt)
Amy Ryan – Win Win
Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life (or Take Shelter)
Gwyneth Paltrow – Contagion
Chloe Moretz – Hugo
Wow – I think Matt’s list is way off. But of course that was five months ago and I’m sure come the end of the year, my list will look ridiculous too.
Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
Ides of March
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Descendents
Drive (this is a long shot b/c it’s a genre flick – but I’m hopeful nonetheless)
Super 8
Meek’s Cutoff will not be winning any awards (nor any nominations). Neither will Restless, Anonymous, Hugo.
That’s a way too many white boys and girls catalogue for the supporting roles :P
Just joking….nevertheless, let’s wait for these two categories a bit because once or twice in a year, a non-Anglophone individual(s) appear(s) as a gravity point because of a heavily spoken performance or thanks to their English-speaking roles in a major production (Penelope Cruz, Benicio Del Toro etc)
“TREE OF LIFE is of course more than bad enough to win the Oscar for Best Picture, and the Oscars could get all self-important about recognizing the film’s extreme “artistry.”
I haven’t seen Malick’s film yet but it can’t be as “safe” or mediocre as any Best Picture of the last 7-8 years.
I can’t see Tree of Life winning an Oscar. It’s too good for the award, first, and surely they’ll give it to War Horse or something like that anyway.
Matt Kilgore
So. It’s (kinda) a tradition of mine to pick a Best Picture winner for the next year the day after the Oscars. I’ve had such luck with this as picking Nine and Changeling, so it probably doesn’t mean anything very good for what I pick, but I’ll go with picks for the ten nominations and then a far out shot for Picture winner.
Tree of Life (Malick)
Descendants (Payne, + Clooney for Actor)
War Horse (Spielberg)
Dangerous Method (Cronenberg)
Hugo Cabret (Scorsese)
Meek’s Cutoff (Reichardt, next year’s “Winter’s Bone”)
Midnight in Paris (Allen, well you never know, but hopefully a return to form)
We Bought a Zoo (Crowe, looks zany, but it’s got a late December date and could be really funny)
Contagion (Sorgerberg, + Winslet/Damon acting)
J. Edgar (Eastwood) (+Leo)
And my choice goes to: TREE OF LIFE, what the hay, they don’t typically like Malick enough, but who knows this early, it may fit what they’re looking for.
I’m pumped though to see Payne coming back after a pretty long hiatus (other than his brilliant short in Paris I Love You). The Spielberg film is obvious oscar bait. The Scorsese thing looks pretty interesting, don’t know if they’ll go for a kids movie that’s not made by Pixar,but it’s Scorsese so… J. Edgar looks pretty interesting. Leo will probably get nominated there, if it’s released in 2011.