Heath Ledger is a lock and might probably win for THE DARK KNIGHT
Josh Brolin in both W. and MILK
Frank Langella and Michael Sheen in FROST/NIXON
Leo D. in REVOLUTION ROAD
maybe Clooney and Pitt for BURN AFTER READING
Eastwood (Gran Torino) and Penn (Milk) are probably the favorites for lead, in my opinion. DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) will almost certainly receive a nomination.
As Christopher said, Ledger will certainly be nominated for supporting and I could definitely see the Academy awarding him posthumously. If they don’t, I could see Brolin (Milk) or Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) winning.
I’d love to see Ben Kingsley acknowledged for “Elegy.” My addiction to Philip Roth might just carry over to the film adaptation, but I thought his was an all-too-human portrayal that easily could have slid into stereotype. Supporting-wise, I suspect Ledger is a shoo-in. But my sleepers in that category would be Downey in “Tropic Thunder” and Cromwell in “W.”
I definitely second Downey for Tropic Thunder … his full-retard monologue was the best comedic monologue of the year. Also the film was just altogether superior then the other action-comedy of the sumer: Pineapple Express (despite my affection for David Gordon Green). I forgot to mention in my immediate post some of the guys I’ve heard rumblings about.
Nay-sayers may not agree, but Mickey Rourke is going to get nominated. If he doesn’t, the buzz-people of the world will stage a mutiny on the academy. What about Bill Irwin for Rachel Getting Married? He’s been a phenomenal character actor forever … he could pull a Chris Cooper and take home best supporting actor.
i wouldnt be surprised if eastwood won best actor for gran turino, with it being his final role and whatnot. in a perfect world jason butler harner would take best supporting actor for changeling, he was genuinely the most disturbing thing iv seen in a film all year. more realistically tho, would be john malkovich for the same film. iv never been a huge fan of his but he really shone in changeling.
No word about Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in Synecdoche, New York.
Many of the heavy-hitters (Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Benjamin Button, The Reader) are yet to come, and most of those currently in limited release (Rachel Getting Married, Synecdoche, etc) have yet to make their way to my neck of the woods, so take this with a grain or two or fifty of salt.
I believe that this is going to be the year that the 80’s bad boys (Mickey Rourke and Robert Downey, Jr.) have their revenge. Richard Jenkins could very well get rewarded for years of wonderful work for The Visitors, which would be lovely. Also, I’d love to see Malkovich score a “Nice to see you again!” nod for Burn After Reading, and Danny McBride deserves recognition for his hysterical work in The Pineapple Express.
Just saw Milk last night…. and while the script, direction, cinematography, score, etc. was mostly mediocre and sometimes just plain terrible, Penn’s performance was absolutely stupendous.
When I read the screenplay about a year ago, I was very worried that it was going to be a terrible movie. It was poorly written, quite confusing, and flat as hell – and the film I saw last night was that – thankfully Penn was truly terrific.
Although I think Mickey Rourke should get a nomination, I’m not sure if he deserves a win. The Wrestler was great, on par with Requiem (or better), and Rourke was great, but compared to what I’ve been hearing about Penn, I don’t think Rourke will do it.
Does anybody feel like Brad Pitt might get a nomination for Best Actor for Benjamin Button? I know the Academy like to be assholes and ignore David Fincher, but maybe 2009 will bring a change.
I’m gonna go waaaaaay out on a limb here and predict that Will Smith will be nominated for “Seven Pounds.” He’s a box-office goldmine who also can wring the tears – a la Tom Hanks – and he seems to be pretty well-liked. I’m possibly off-base; a lack of sleep and far too little caffeine is making me delirious. But after “Ali” and “The Pursuit of Happyness,” the Academy might just invite him again.
I think as of now the best actor locks are Rourke for “The Wrestler” and Penn for “Milk.” Eastwood will probably show up (since it’s his “last” acting role) for “Gran Torino.” Then you’ve got strong possibilities for Langella and Sheen (although he might go supporting) for “Frost/Nixon,” Jenkins for “The Visitor,” DiCaprio for “Revolutionary Road,” Pitt for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and Patel for “Slumdog Millionaire” (if the movie gets a Best Picture nomination they’ll want to nominate the movie for at least ONE acting award, and he has the best shot from what I’ve read). And there are quite a few other actors waiting in the wings who may come out of nowhere. I honestly don’t know who will end up in the final 5 besides Rourke and Penn.
As for supporting? Honestly, it doesn’t matter…Ledger is gonna win. Not because he has passed and the Academy “owes” him something, and not because he played an iconic character in a blockbuster…his portrayal was, without a doubt, the best performance of ANYONE, male or female, lead or supporting. I’d say it was the 2nd best performance of the decade, only slightly below Lewis’ work in “There Will Be Blood.” His nomination is pretty much guaranteed unless the Academy has a brain-fart, and (barring some MAJOR upset) I think he’s a lock for the win.
Tom Cruise for Valkyrie?
I don’t have any opinion on the matter
just throwin that out there
I hope that Sean Penn wins for Best Actor, definitely nominated
Josh Brolin should definitely get a nomination for supporting
I would also love to see Emile Hirsch get a nomination for Milk
But I think Heath Ledger deserves to win, from what I’ve seen so far. Every villain from now on is gonna be measured up to Heath Ledger.
As long as she is in one film each year, I think Cate Blanchett has a good chance of getting nominated every year. Never count her out.
Cayley James
In this season of incredibly strong female performances the Actress categories are going to have steep competition.
Who though is coming through with stand-out male performances this year? There isn’t a Daniel Day Lewis in the bunch … slim pickings in my opinion.