Oh, and about Peyton vs. Eli, there’s no reason to compare them except that they’re both named Manning. You might as well try comparing them both to Archie.
Welker should have caught that pass, yes, and Brady shouldn’t have got a safety, and ….all close games are going to have the moments that feel like “the reason they lost”..
“Oh, and about Peyton vs. Eli, there’s no reason to compare them except that they’re both named Manning. You might as well try comparing them both to Archie.”
Well, I get your point, but as Peyton and Eli are two of the premier Quarterbacks of the last 12 years or so, I think comparisons to each other are as valid as comparing either to Tom Brady.
Well, if you’re comparing Peyton and Brady, you’ve at least got careers that are closer to the same span, two QBs that have closer to the same numbers of career passing attempts and post-season game starts.
Tangentially related, was looking at something Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders put together for ESPN, postseason defense-adjusted yards above replacement for QBs 1995-2011.
Quarterback/DYAR/Games
Peyton Manning / 2,317 / 19
Tom Brady / 1,831 / 22
Kurt Warner / 1,612 / 13
Drew Brees / 1,330 / 9
Brett Favre / 1,111 / 20
Eli Manning / 837 / 11
Aaron Rodgers / 832 / 7
Matt Hasselbeck / 787 /11
Ben Roethlisberger / 634 / 14
Philip Rivers / 595 / 7
I saw Eric Mangini on TV talking about the play and he said that, as far as the coaching staff was concerned, they would score it as a drop,…
I understand the rationale behind that, but there’s a big difference between that drop and the one Hernandez made in the last drive of the game. So while I feel he should have caught it, I don’t blame him for not catching it, too—if that makes any sense.
…but I’m not sure I understand the distinction you’re trying to make here.
My point is that I put a more blame on Brady than Welker (even though it was a catchable ball).
Physically he does, more or less. Talent-wise, not so much.
Yeah, maybe. It’s a different league now, so it’s hard to say. My point is that they’re similar runners. If you’re looking for same caliber as Muncie (who was like a poor man’s Earl Campbell), I don’t know if there are too many RBs like that now. But again, the quality of running is a function of the level of commitment to running game—i.e., building an offensive line and giving enough carries, etc. I think Willis Magahee is an example of this.
Gronk’s important, but I think that Welker is still every bit as important to that offense.
Yeah, I wouldn’t dispute that—but I don’t think that changes my point (i.e., a less than 100% Gronk will significantly hurt the offense).
In an ideal world, you’d want a stronger defense, no question.
The Pats are either making bad picks for defense, getting unlucky or just emphasizing offense a little more in terms of going after personnel. I don’t care for that approach.
“I don’t blame him for not catching it, too—if that makes any sense.”
Well, ha, yeah, it’s not, like, appropriate to burn him in effigy or anything, particularly in light of his performance over the course of the rest of the game and the entire regular season that preceded it. Any offense that throws the ball like they do is going to have its share of drops/missed throws that jump out at you.
“The Pats are either making bad picks for defense, getting unlucky or just emphasizing offense a little more in terms of going after personnel. "
Well, I think the “overthinking” concept might apply here too—they sort of fancy themselves able to dive into late rounds and get players that nobody else sees how to use—Gronk and Hernandez, for example. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
Their first round picks over the course of the last decade or so haven’t been too bad. They took OT Nate Solder last year, and obviously it’s too soon to judge there. Devin McCourty from the year before had a really good rookie season, but now he seems to be a real question mark. Mayo, who they drafted in 2008 is going to be a very good MLB, I think. Brandon Meriweather had a short shelf life. Laurence Maroney didn’t last as a RB in that system. Logan Mankins was a good pick. Ben Watson was a role player at TE. Vince Wilfork was a good pick. Ty Warren was a reasonable good pick. Daniel Graham was another decent but unexceptional TE. Richard Seymour was good while they could afford him. That gets us all the way back to 2000, when they didn’t have a 1st rounder.
The Pats have a habit of trading down and padding their amount of picks to get depth guys. The latter rounds have their share of real finds and real wastes (I think Chad Jackson as the second round pick a few years back was a real standout bust, due to his injuries). It regularly annoys the Todd McShays and Mel Kipers of the world, but they have not been exceptionally bad except maybe in 2007. Sometimes the Pats will react to crushing season enders in their off-season. The collapse in Indianapolis led to Welker and Moss, for example. Maybe they use those draft picks to trade up for a standout defensive player, even more delicious if they did so to leap frog the Jets.
Now for the Giants, I hope they keep Manningham but if there is anybody from either participating team that got a payday for their performance it is him. The team better be confident in Jernigan or find a cheaper option in FA (Maybe Brandon Lloyd or Eddie Royal?).
Also the O-Line needs work. McKenzie is probably done and Diehl really needs to restructure his contract. Our only TEs are Christian Hopkins on the Practice Squad and Bear Pascoe due to Beckum (who is a likely release) and Ballard who tore his ACL. The popular consensus in mock drafts is for them to take a TE in the first round but the FA market is not too bad in veteran TEs that you go crazy and overdraft a Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener.
Jacobs is going to be a massive cap-hit so I can see him getting released. Only Michael Bush on the FA market fits and there are a couple of sprint runners in the draft who I think would be a much better compliment to Bradshaw but more in the Derrick Ward mold.
Weatherford and Terrell Thomas are likely going to stay, though I am interested in T2’s contract. When healthy he is one of the best but how much of the injury will effect his deal?
Goff is a FA which could mean the unicorn scenario of the Giants actually using a first-round pick on a LB.
Once again I am anxious about this team’s off-season and I will probably be befuddled by what they do in the draft or in free agency that leaves me with little confidence until Jerry Reese and Marc Ross prove me wrong.
So, the NFL draft is coming up and Peyton Manning is shopping around for a team (or is it the other way around?).
I just heard that eh Skins traded up to the #2 spot, ostensibly to get RGIII. I haven’t seen him play, but is this guy really that good? Was he really good this year? I heard Tony Dungy say that he only saw a few games, but based on those games, he’d pick RGIII over Luck. That seems kinda crazy to me—choosing someone based on so few games.
Which team makes the best fit for Manning? I heard he’s talking to the Broncos. I’d feel a little bad for Tebow. I’m not sure it’s a great fit, unless Fox is willing to give up control of the offense—or if Manning is willing to allow more running.
I don’t like the Jets as a team. Actually, the bad thing about Manning, besides the uncertainty of his health and ability to perform, is the fact that the offense would really have to change a whole lot, if he came on board—or at least that is my sense. Could Manning be effective running an offense that was different than the one he ran at Indy? I’m a bit doubtful—because what really made him successful was the command of the offense and his ability to call plays.
I think there’s no way he goes to the Jets—He wants to win and win soon and that’s not going to happen with a locker room that’s in chaos.
I think you can count out the Redskins for historical reasons—no one really believes in their ownership and Peyton should be smart enough to avoid that pitfall.
Broncos? Interesting. Their ownership and Elway have to be wanting a way out of Tebow but it’s not easy, and as you indicated not a perfect fit for Manning anyway.
Dolphins? Well? Lesser of evils? Don’t know.
I respect Manning much more than I’m a fan of his, but as a football fan I would love to see him have one more chance at greatness before he becomes the highest paid commentator out there (and you know that’s coming).
“unless Fox is willing to give up control of the offense”
Fox is a defensive guy, so I think he probably will be for the right situation. Pretty much the entire Colts starting offense has been cut or are free agents, so maybe the Broncos could just sign them all so Manning would feel more comfortable? :)
“Was he really good this year? "
I don’t know that I’d take him over Luck, but he’s got a WR/RB speed and a QB’s arm, and he had a great senior season.
RGIII
rating 189.5 yds, 4293 comp% 72.4, ypa 10.68, TDs 37, Int 6
Luck
rating 169.7 yds, 3517 comp% 71.3, ypa 8.71, TDs 37, ints 10
I’ll play GM…
I’m passing on Peyton. Too old and too many neck surgeries. He may never don a helmet again. I’m not selling my future for a shaky present. It’s not like Peyton is landing on your roster and running you all the way to a Super Bowl win in his first season. So does he even have 2-3 prime years left in him? One for that matter? If you have doubt then you must pass on him. You can’t buy a trophy. You have to develop franchise QBs from an early stage, often from the ground up.
I’ll take RG3 over Luck. He’s more of a threat. I like the level of competition against the Big XII. He puts fans in seats, because people are expecting a new generation Vick. He’s a star waiting to be born. I’m sure Luck is great and whoever picks him will be happy. Washington is smart to make that move and get in the game with RG3.
Broncos should stick with Tebow. The guy got you to the playoffs for God’s sake! End of story. He’s young and fiery and learning how to play the pro game. The city has his back and so does the roster. Develop him.
Miami seems a good fit for Manning. Imagine him and Brady in the same division? Hell, they already played 2 times a year anyway. Cleveland would be smart to try for Manning too but they don’t have enough allure. They should get Flynn instead. He’ll be a good WC quarterback.
“Broncos should stick with Tebow. The guy got you to the playoffs for God’s sake! "
Well, yeah, but he also got them beat by 35 points in the playoffs.
“Washington is smart to make that move and get in the game with RG3.”
They’re giving up so much though . . . it makes them almost totally dependent of free agency for impact players for the next few years. And it’s not like RGIII is the last piece of the puzzle for that team. It’s not even analogous to Cam Newton with the Panthers, where you had two 1000-yard season caliber backs and a multi-time Pro Bowler at receiver. Not saying it’s a bad move, but it better be part of a larger strategy to remake that roster.
@HoL
I think there’s no way he goes to the Jets—He wants to win and win soon and that’s not going to happen with a locker room that’s in chaos.
Well, maybe the locker room is beyond repair, but I suspect that with an addition like Manning that could settle things down a bit. The bigger problem for me is what it will do to Sanchez—not just his confidence and development, but you’re going to have to sit him for two to three years, if not four. If you’ve given up on Sanchez or willing to give up on him, then taking Manning might be a good way to go, but it’s only a short term solution.
The other question is will Manning be willing to run the ball or will Ryan allow Manning to throw the ball a lot?
I think you can count out the Redskins for historical reasons—no one really believes in their ownership and Peyton should be smart enough to avoid that pitfall.
I’ve heard commentators say the Shanahan’s style won’t match Peyton anyway.
Going to the Broncos seems decent as the AFC West is pretty weak. I like a scenario where Manning is willing to run the ball a lot more, but I’m not sure he’s at that point. But this move could be rough on Tebow.
As for the ‘Fins that seems risky. The defense seems solid, but will Manning be able to turn the offense around? I’m not sure. Plus, that’s not an easy division.
@Matt
I don’t know that I’d take him over Luck, but he’s got a WR/RB speed and a QB’s arm, and he had a great senior season.
I don’t care about his speed, and the great senior season would scare me just a little.
@Bobby
. It’s not like Peyton is landing on your roster and running you all the way to a Super Bowl win in his first season. So does he even have 2-3 prime years left in him? One for that matter? If you have doubt then you must pass on him. You can’t buy a trophy. You have to develop franchise QBs from an early stage, often from the ground up.
But picture this: Manning goes to the 49ers—he’s about 80%, AND he’s willing to let the Niners be a running team (like how Elway let the Broncos become a running team at the end of his career). Under those circumstances, I could see SB in the first year, and maybe one or two after that—at least on that team.
But are you saying that, no team should pick him up? That’s pretty strong. One way I could see that scenario playing out is if you would have to revamp the entire offense for him—while Manning is the only one that can run it—and he’s health and abilities aren’t certain.
I’ll take RG3 over Luck. He’s more of a threat.
Imo, the threat aspect is overrated. Look at Vick—his running ability is more a liability, as it probably lead to major injuries. And you’re that confident about one season. Why are you (and others) are so sure he’s not another Vince Young or JaMarcus Russell?
Broncos should stick with Tebow. The guy got you to the playoffs for God’s sake! End of story. He’s young and fiery and learning how to play the pro game. The city has his back and so does the roster. Develop him.
Well, developing him might be easier said than done. As much as I was rooting for Tebow, I do think going with him is problematic and a bit of a gamble. Are you going to commit to Tebow’s style and build around that, or are you going to push him into a more conventional QB? What if the latter doesn’t work? Elway is in a tough situation, and I wouldn’t completely blame him if he picked up Manning.
Yeah, the Browns could probably use Manning, but I’m not sure they’re serious contenders with him there—plus I’m not sure how he’d fit in with Holmgren.
“I don’t care about his speed, and the great senior season would scare me just a little.”
Well, yeah, technically, though, this season was his junior season (he redshirted in 2009 after an ACL injury in the third game of the season). If you look at his freshman year in comparison to Luck’s first season (and bear in mind that Luck redshirted his true freshman year while RG3 started as a true freshman), his numbers still hold up pretty well.
RG3
comp % 59.9, yds 2091, TDs 15, ints 3
Luck
comp % 56.3, yds 2575, TDs 13, ints 4
. . . and neither Vince Young nor Russell had a college season as good as a passing season as the ones RG3 and Luck posted this season.
The Broncos might have lost in the playoffs but they were there. Tebow was a huge reason they were there. And that division is winnable again, so they might be right back in it with a more experienced Tebow.
Washington happens to be in a position to give up a lot. They have the money to rely on free agents. They probably feel they’re a qb away from competing for the division. I’d tend to agree with that. Either way, you have to give up the farm to get a franchise qb. It’s only right. If anything is worth gambling on it’s that.
Manning would be absolutely fine in Miami with Bush and Marshall to work with. That’s a pretty high-powered combo. I would love to see the 9ers win a couple of trophies, and maybe Manning can bring them. But I tend to think no. They proved they can win big with Alex Smith. Keep riding that horse. Am I saying no team should pick Manning up? Not really. Someone will need him. But if you have a choice, I’d say he’s a lesser option.
Threats can never be overrated. Especially not in this offensive-minded league. Injuries happen to everyone. Apparently Manning wasn’t so safe, and he’s not a runner. Vick hasn’t had a career-threatening injury or missed major time yet. I’m not so sure about RG3 as the next great thing. I just say it’s worth it to pick the kid up. I like his spark. He sells more tickets than Luck does.
Yes, commit to Tebow as he is. Why push a round peg into a square hole? He is what he is and it’s way too late in the game to change him now. Is he not a winner? Ride him!
" They probably feel they’re a qb away from competing for the division. I’d tend to agree with that. "
Last season they were 25th of 32 teams in the NFL in rushing. They were 20th in total defense, 12th against the pass, and 18th against the run. Their leading rusher, Roy Helu, amassed fewer total rushing yards last season than 28 other running backs and Cam Newton and Tim Tebow. Their leading receiver was . . . Jabber Gaffney, whose never caught 70 balls in a season. They have a lot of holes to fill if they’re going to compete for the division.
Yes, they have a lot of holes to fill. But top to bottom the NFC East is usually the most competitive division in football. There usually are no clear demarcations between contender and pretender. The Giants are streaky and could fade back into obscurity before popping up again in 3 or 4 years and winning another title. Dallas looks like it is fated to be good but never great with Romo behind center. Will Philly gel this next season? Who knows. If a chain’s strength is measured by its weakest link I think the Redskins are a pretty good “bad” team for a division to have. With RG3 they already turn a step around the corner before their divisional competitors whose quarterbacks are all in their 30s (and haven’t proved anything besides Eli).
Right, I’m not saying they shouldn’t have made the trade, just that it better not be the only thing they do if they want to compete. Even with Newton and the Panthers, Newton was a huge upgrade, but would he have as big an impact without Ron Rivera brought in as head coach and Rob Chudzinski brought in as OC? I don’t think so. And the ‘Skins record with free agent signings isn’t exactly stellar since Snyder has owned the team—Adam Archuleta,
Albert Haynesworth, Jeff George, late-career “Subprimetime” Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith at the the end of the road.
They’re actually going into this offseason with a good amount of cap space for a change (as of Feb 13th, $47.56 million, according to ESPN) This offseason, they’ve used their franchise tag of Fred Davis. They need to re-sign London Fletcher. The o-line needs work, it would be nice to have a receiver who was an outside threat. On defense, their front seven is pretty good, but the secondary has not played well.
They also have decisions to make about free agents LaRon Landry, Tim Hightower, Rex Grossman, Donte Stallworth, and Phillip Buchanon.
Moss a 49er!
@Bobby
Yes, commit to Tebow as he is. Why push a round peg into a square hole? He is what he is and it’s way too late in the game to change him now. Is he not a winner? Ride him!
Yes, he had a nice win streak, but I’m far from convinced that that’s sustainable—unless he vastly improves his ability to pass the ball. I’ll feel bad for him if Manning goes to the Bronocs (although, maybe sitting behind Manning might be a good thing.)
What about Tebow going to some place like Seattle—where they don’t have much to lose on the offensive end?
With RG3 they already turn a step around the corner before their divisional competitors whose quarterbacks are all in their 30s (and haven’t proved anything besides Eli).
But everyone is basing this on one season! To think that Griffin is going to turn everything around and lead the ‘Skins past the G-Men, Eagles or Cowboys (not to mention whoever else comes out of the other NFC divisions) is a tall order. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but this scenario seems to be based on very little substance. (FWIW, RG3 seems like a great guy, so I wish him well.)
Matt said, Moss a 49er!
Meh. As long as they have some way to get rid of him when he starts quitting.
RG3 has been a great player for a while for anyone interested in following the Big XII. He’s not a one-year wonder. I’m not saying he wins the NFC East his first year out, but then again quarterbacks in this day and age have success very early in their careers. Stranger things have happened.
Love Moss with the 9ers! Hope to see them right back in the playoffs on the verge of a Super Bowl.
“But everyone is basing this on one season! "
Did you look at the freshman comparison between RG3 and Luck that I posted above?
“As long as they have some way to get rid of him when he starts quitting.”
He’s going to take some plays off, but as long as he can be productive this won’t necessarily be an big issue as because his presence should open up space for Davis and Crabtree, and should make teams think twice about putting 8 men in the box to stop the run. He can be a difficult personality, but Harbaugh is a different type of personality as a head coach, so it’s possible that he will be able to manage that as he did some of the difficult personalities on the 49ers last season.
Oh, and as a follow up to the ’Skins building through free agency, did you all see that they lost $36 million in cap space over the next couple of seasons over their contract practices in 2010? (the Cowboys also will lose $10 million over the same span).
Brandon Marshall is now a Bear.
Did you look at the freshman comparison between RG3 and Luck that I posted above?
Sorry, I didn’t read the “freshmen” part. Still, are those stats sufficient to say he was a great player? And were people talking about him from that time—or even his sophomore or junior years? Honestly, I don’t know because I don’t follow college football, but I get the sense that most people are excited because of one year. Is that not accurate? Do you think he was special all a long?
He’s going to take some plays off, but as long as he can be productive this won’t necessarily be an big issue as because his presence should open up space for Davis and Crabtree, and should make teams think twice about putting 8 men in the box to stop the run.
Yeah, but that sounds like similar logic when Moss when to the Titans.
…but Harbaugh is a different type of personality as a head coach, so it’s possible that he will be able to manage that as he did some of the difficult personalities on the 49ers last season.
Significantly different from Belichick or Fisher—not to say that those two have a soft touch or diplomatic skills. Still, I’m not sure that’s what it would take to deal with Moss effectively, or even if Habaugh has those skills. The problem, isn’t just taking off plays, but if the team hits a bad streak and Moss loses interest.
Oh, and as a follow up to the ’Skins building through free agency, did you all see that they lost $36 million in cap space over the next couple of seasons over their contract practices in 2010?
Nope. They really seemed to be a model of how not to build a consistent winner.
Brandon Marshall is now a Bear.
How do you feel about that? I don’t get Marshall and WR who are great and then not-so-great. Maybe in the last fifteen years or so, that seems to be more common. Before that, if I WR was great, they’d stay great, unless they got old or injured. As far as I know, Marshall doesn’t have injury problems. I just don’t recall seeing a guy seem great one year (at Denver) and just drop off the next. He’s not the only one, too.
RG3 was voted Freshman of the Year by the Big 12 coaches, so he was thought of highly before last year.
“I don’t get Marshall and WR who are great and then not-so-great. Maybe in the last fifteen years or so, that seems to be more common. Before that, if I WR was great, they’d stay great, unless they got old or injured.”
He was top 10 in receptions and receiving yards last year, Jazz. He was slightly less effective with Orton at QB than he was with Cutler, and slightly less effective still with Henne or Matt Moore than with Orton, but that’s hardly surprising when you look at the relative abilities of those QBs. Even so, he’s been over 1000 yards every season he’s be a starter, and the Bears have rarely had a receiver put up a 1000 yard season. None since 2001, and only 11 in franchise history. He’s not a top 5 receiver, but he’s got to be top 10, and he’s got proven chemistry with Cutler, so I’m pretty happy with the trade. The argument could be made that this is the best receiver they’ve ever had.
(Like the signing of Jason Campbell as a 2nd QB, too . . . obviously addresses a huge weakness on last year’s team)
_RG3 was voted Freshman of the Year by the Big 12 coaches, so he was thought of highly before last year.
So was there a lot of talk about him in his sophomore and junior years?
He was top 10 in receptions and receiving yards last year, Jazz.
But you don’t think he was arguably the best receiver in the NFL, right? When he left Denver, wasn’t he being talked about in that vein? Well, I hopefully he works out for the Bears.
(I agree Campbell is a good pick up. I hope he does well, because he’s been through a lot.)
“But you don’t think he was arguably the best receiver in the NFL, right?”
I dunno. I think that’s a tough argument to make with Welker, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald around at the time. I’d probably put him right at the top of that next tier of guys. Today you have to slot him in somewhere behind Calvin Johnson and probably Roddy White too.
But the QB throwing to a receiver makes a big difference, even with an elite receiver. Look at the resurgence of Steve Smith with the Panthers with Cam Newton at QB.
But I do think you can frame it this way. Marshall is 27. Find me a elite receiver who’s younger. Every active receiver with more receiving yards is older than 27 (he’s 19th among active players). Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis are all 27, and are lower on the list. Calvin Johnson (26) and DeSean Jackson (25) are the only ones younger who are even in the top 50.
Great trade. Cutler to Marshall is one of the best tandems in the business. Better than Ryan to White. I think Marshall is an elite receiver for sure. The Bears better start winning big with all the talent they’ve been stacking up in the past few years. Urrlacher and Peppers are a little long in the tooth.
Yeah, age on defense is a growing concern. Chicago had been pursuing Jerome Mincey to get a young DE to line up at the other DE, but he’s re-signed with Jacksonville now, so that’s out. There’s still an outside shot that they could muster a deal to land Mario Williams, but that would tie up a lot of money.
Matt Parks
“should Welker have caught the ball?”
I saw Eric Mangini on TV talking about the play and he said that, as far as the coaching staff was concerned, they would score it as a drop, so while it’s not like it hit him in the numbers and bounced off or anything, I’m pretty sure the standard thinking is, yes, he should have caught it. In fairness, he caught the other seven passes that where thrown to him, so it’s hard, I would imagine, to be too outraged about the one drop. Especially when Branch only came down with 3 of 6 balls thrown his way, and Hernandez 8 of 14.
“I tend to it was catchable, but it’s a little rough to blame him for not catching the ball.”
I would agree that you can’t simply say it’s 100% Welker’s fault that he didn’t catch the ball (it was an imperfect throw thrown between three defenders, which didn’t allow him a full measure of space to adjust to the throw), but I’m not sure I understand the distinction you’re trying to make here. He’s a receiver, so he should catch catchable balls, right?
“You don’t think Brandon Jacobs is in that mold?”
Physically he does, more or less. Talent-wise, not so much.
“let’s not forget that their most important weapon wasn’t 100%.”
Gronk’s important, but I think that Welker is still every bit as important to that offense.
“I think the Patriots rely a little too much on the scoring and not enough on a strong defense.”
In an ideal world, you’d want a stronger defense, no question.