NFL
The Niners are now going after Peyton. What the…? It makes sense, but all that talk about Smith being the man doesn’t look good now. Harbaugh should never have said that, unless everyone in management was on board with that. If there was a chance they’d be interested in Manning, they should have never said Smith was their guy. (Didn’t they explicitly say they would pursue Manning?) Then again, I wonder if Smith not signing yet, has something to do with this. I feel bad for Alex Smith, but if either Harbaugh doesn’t mind giving Manning the reigns to the offense or Manning doesn’t mind letting the running game dominate, the Niners could be really scary. (Actually, the latter scenario sounds better, imo.)
Yeah, was surprised Miami was out so early, and impressed by the tenacity of the Broncos, but the 9ers is really interesting… There’s no way he goes there without running the offense, right? Harbaugh has to realize that’s what he’s getting.
There’s no way he goes there without running the offense, right?
I’m not a 100% sure about this. Let me suggest a scenario: say he’s not 100%, so he can no longer do the things he used to. Say he accepts this and agrees that the team should be based on the running game—which might limit the amount of audibles he calls. He might still have a significant hand in the play calling, but not to the same extent in Indy and maybe the team will be more run oriented.
Btw, I’m thinking of what Elway did at the tail end of his career. He never ran the offense like Manning, but he was the center of everything—until the last few years. If Manning accepts a smaller role, I think it could work with the Niners. And with the Niners running game, he wouldn’t have to carry the team. If he could made a handful of plays during the course of the game, that would probably be more than enough for them to succeed.
(I didn’t know Miami is out of contention.)
You have to kick the tires on Manning if he’s available, especially if two of the biggest since one of the biggest interest-showers is a division rival, the Cardinals . . . if for know other reason than to make it tougher on/more expensive for Arizona.
Also, Manning and Smith have the same agent, so it’s possible this is partially a gambit on Condon’s part to inflate Manning’s market value, and thereby also inflate Smith’s value as the market scales down from Manning to the other available QBs.
If they were to sign Manning, that makes the Moss signing a little puzzling to me, as Randy doesn’t really seem like a good fit, either interpersonally with Peyton, or in the style of offense Manning has run in Indy.
Oh, and about the potential run/pass situation on a Manning-led 49ers team, don’t forget that on some of the best of those Colts teams, Edgerrin James was carrying to ball 360-387 times (and these weren’t, by the way, token runs, he led the league in rushing in ‘99 and 2000, and was top 5 in 2004 and 2005). Gore only carried the ball 282 times last year. Even once you add Hunter’s 112 and Dixon’s 29, that’s still only 423 from the halfback position, so it’s not like Manning can’t be effective running a more balanced offense than what the Colts have run in recent years.
.. . if for know other reason than to make it tougher on/more expensive for Arizona.
If that’s the case, I wouldn’t have a problem with that—as long as Smith knows this. But if the Niners are seriously trying to get Manning, this is sort of messed up. You coach, whom you supposedly have a great relationship with, assured you that you’re the man, that they wouldn’t pursue Manning. It could be blow to both Smith’s confidence and trust.
Also, Manning and Smith have the same agent, so it’s possible this is partially a gambit on Condon’s part to inflate Manning’s market value, and thereby also inflate Smith’s value as the market scales down from Manning to the other available QBs.
So, Smith doesn’t sign, which forces the Niners to consider Manning, which increases market value and later Smith’s? (Not sure how this would help’s Smith’s market value, as I can’t imagine a lot of teams wanting him.)
Oh, and about the potential run/pass situation on a Manning-led 49ers team, don’t forget that on some of the best of those Colts teams, Edgerrin James was carrying to ball 360-387 times
My memory is hazy at this point, but I never got the sense that the Colts were ever a run oriented team—as long as Manning was there. it was always pass first and pass oriented, imo. No way were the teams like Denver with TD or Dallas with Emmitt—or this SF 49er team. I’m not saying Manning can’t hand the ball off, but he tends to go to and rely on the pass more—to control and win games. It makes sense to me because he’s so good at passing and calling the pass plays. Elway and Marino were like this, too. Elway only changed at the end of his career.
“Not sure how this would help’s Smith’s market value, as I can’t imagine a lot of teams wanting him”
He finished last season with the 9th highest QB rating in the league, his completion percentage was 11th best, and he quarterbacked the team to the NFC championship game. OK, maybe you gamble that Manning doesn’t lose all feeling in his throwing arm next big hit he takes, or maybe you take a flyer on Flynn despite the prohibatively small sample size, but you telling me you’d stick with Tavaris Jackson or Colt McCoy or Matt Moore or Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert or Rex Grossman, or a 36-year-old Matt Hasslebeck?
“My memory is hazy”
’99 run/pass 419/546
’00 435/571
’01 438/557
’02 434/591 (42 % runs)
’03 453/569
’04 427/527
TD/Elway Broncos
’95 440/594
’96 525/536 (49.4% runs)
’97 520/513 (50.3% runs)
’98 491/525 (48.3% runs)
Cowboys
’91 433/500
’92 500/491
’93 490/475
’94 550/448 (55% runs)
’95 495/494
compare to 2010 Colts:
393 runs/679 passes (36% runs)
So, for the most part, at their most imbalanced during those years, the Colts were throwing the ball about 8% more than they ran the ball. But overall they’re not terrible dissimilar to the other teams you mentioned. Denver stayed close to 50/50, as did the Cowboys with the exception of ’94 where they ran about 5% more than they passed. But the later Colts teams, as you can see, were throwing the ball almost 65% of the time.
…but you telling me you’d stick with Tavaris Jackson or Colt McCoy or Matt Moore or Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert or Rex Grossman, or a 36-year-old Matt Hasslebeck?
I’m not happy with any of them, except for maybe Ponder, but I wouldn’t be satisfied with getting Smith.
So, for the most part, at their most imbalanced during those years, the Colts were throwing the ball about 8% more than they ran the ball. But overall they’re not terrible dissimilar to the other teams you mentioned.
I just think the Colts have been pretty much pass oriented. I suspect that great teams throughout history have had a balance of passing and running, but teams favor one over the other. The Niners have been more pass-oriented. Parcells’ Giants and the 90’s Cowboys have been based on the run, etc. The Niners now seem to be more run oriented. Will Peyton be comfortable with that? Could he be content throwing the ball under 25 attempts?
Yeah, but, see if you look at the Montana Niners teams, I’m pretty sure they would still be running the ball about 45% of the time. This year’s Niners were 498 / 451, so they’re running about 53 % of the time, so the actual difference between what’s considered a running team and what’s considered a passing team is actually really slight. You really only have really imbalanced teams over a couple of recent years.
The Lions this year: 356/666 (about 35% runs)
Packers 395/552 (41% runs)
Pats 438/612 (41%)
So . . . reports are Manning’s decided he wants to play for the Broncos and his agent has begun negotiations to work out a deal. Apparently Denver will begin trying to trade Tebow once the deal is done.
You really only have really imbalanced teams over a couple of recent years.
I suspect a lot of teams are fairly balanced (Well, maybe not now), so maybe the statistics don’t capture what I’m talking about.
So . . . reports are Manning’s decided he wants to play for the Broncos and his agent has begun negotiations to work out a deal. Apparently Denver will begin trying to trade Tebow once the deal is done.
I’m guessing that Manning doesn’t want to go to the NFC and have to play Eli. It makes sense. If Manning really wants SB, SF is the way better choice. Granted, the AFC West is weak, but he’ll still have to be another AFC team.
I’ll feel bad for Tebow if the Broncos take Manning and trade Tebow. It’ll make me root for him more and I hope he’ll get to knock out the Broncos, if that happens.
I can understand him wanting to stay in the AFC, if only for familiarity’s sake. Plus, they’ve got a top rushing game (if Magahee stays healthy), a pair of serviceable receivers, and a pair of double digit sack guys in Dumervil and Miller. The have $40 million in gap room (before the Manning deal), so you figure they could bring in someone else significant (Mike Wallace, whose a restricted free agent, is one name that I’ve seen mentioned).
The Niners better go ahead and get a deal with Smith done, or he’s off to Miami and San Fran is taking a step backwards, even with Moss and Manningham added to the mix.
For some reason I feel pretty resentment on behalf of Smith and Tebow. A part of me hopes that they leave their teams and then in some future situation beat their teams in some crucial situation. I also partly hope the Manning doesn’t work out, and that the Niners decline. I don’t know where this is coming from. With Smith, although I don’t know the full details, but Harbaugh telling him he’s there guy and then doing a 180 just doesn’t seem right. Now, if pursuing Manning came from someone other than Harbaugh, I’m a little more OK with that, but if not, that’s not right to me.
Well, bear in mind witht he 49ers that Smith (who apparently has signed a new deal now) was not under contract, so it’s not really the same situation as the Tebow situation, so even if the Niners intended to stay with Smith all along, they still should probably have done due diligence on other options just in case.
It’ll be interesting to see what the 49ers passing game looks like with Crabtree and Manningham and Moss next year.
It’s business, never personal! Not sure how to feel about the Broncos. This is the story of the year. If it backfires Elway could take the fall. Especially if Tebow shows growth and continued wins elsewhere. The 9ers look talent-rich at receiver now (don’t forget about Davis at tight end). I hope Smith can live up to the expectations.
I gotta think the upgrade at receiver is enough to keep them ahead of Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle (even with the addition of Flynn).
@Matt
Well, bear in mind witht he 49ers that Smith (who apparently has signed a new deal now) was not under contract, so it’s not really the same situation as the Tebow situation…
Right, but that still doesn’t explain Harbaugh coming out strong to say that they’re not considering Manning, Smith is there guy. This is the thing that bugs me the most. How can Smith trust Harbaugh now? Had Harbaugh not made that proclamation, at least he could maintain some integrity.
@Bobby
The Manning get has to be an utter disaster for Elway to be reemed for this. From a strictly football perspective, the deal makes sense. (Now, if we learn that Peyton wasn’t really healthy and Elway knew this, but took a chance anyway, that’s a different story.)
The thing I feel bad about is Tebow didn’t seem to get a fair chance. Last year was essentially his first season. No, he didn’t display the necessary skills, but, yes, he helped turned the season around, winning one playoff game. And, yes, his skills seemed to improve. Will he keep improving? We don’t know, but given what he did, I think he deserved a shot at it.
_The 9ers look talent-rich at receiver now (don’t forget about Davis at tight end). _
Yeah. If everything else stays the same—and if Smith improves—they’ll be deadly. I’d like to see them go against the Packers and/or Saints (if both teams play at the same level).
If Smith was unhappy with the situation, he could have simply signed somewhere else. And it wasn’t as if the 49ers were trying to sneak away from Smith. At the point that Harbaugh and Roman came here to see Peyton throw, the team reportedly had a three-year, $24 million offer on the table. Meanwhile Smith was out visiting the Dolphins. Smith was the second or third best QB on the market, so he was going to wait for Manning and Flynn to sign to make sure he was get market value. This is just how the free agency process works.
About Tebow, I heard Trent Dilfer say on the radio that mechanically the one of the worst throwing QB in the league. And he wasn’t just talking about starters, he meant all the second and third team QBs in the league, too. so, if that’s at all true, you’ve got to figure that his upper boundry isn’t very high.
Mechanics are one thing. Playoff wins are another. Which would you prefer? The mechanics critique is getting old. It’s high school talk.
Even if you insist in making the argument purely about win-loss, Tebow’s 8-6 as a starter over two seasons. And it’s playoff win, not wins.
A winning record plus one playoff victory. Many a qb in the league would kill for that resume. People keep betting against Tebow. That’s been foolish in the past and apparently it’s still foolish now. The kid is a winner, plain and simple, end of story. Miami or J-ville would do good to bring him back to Florida.
Can’t believe I’m defending Tebow. From a diehard OU fan who wanted his head on a platter for beating us in the title game. That should prove I’m being objective!
He deserves to be on a roster somewhere else. Especially with general lack of depth of talent at the QB position these days. But, you have to scale expectations to the real world. Defenses will figure him out, he’ll get banged up physically, he’ll make mistakes when he has to throw the ball into tight coverage. He’ll continue to fumble a lot.
It sounds like Miami is committed to running a West Coast system next season, and don’t think Tebow would be a good fit (plus they just signed Garrard), so that leaves, if you believe the reports, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and now the Jets as the main contenders.
About Tebow, I heard Trent Dilfer say on the radio that mechanically the one of the worst throwing QB in the league. And he wasn’t just talking about starters, he meant all the second and third team QBs in the league, too. so, if that’s at all true, you’ve got to figure that his upper boundry isn’t very high.
To me, it’s his footwork and the way he moves, dropping back, that look awkward more than anything. But then again what do I know? But is Tebow’s throwing motion really worse than someone like Randall Cunningham, who had a long wind-up, or Steve Young, who, to me, had one of the ugliest throwing motions I’ve ever seen.
Btw, Young wasn’t a very good passer (I’m thinking of when he first came over to the Niners), and ran a lot (which is one the reasons I thought he wouldn’t amount to much), but we all know what happened later. I’m not saying Tebow is going to become as good as Young, but I’m not sure why people seem to assume there’s no way he can get a lot better.
But, you have to scale expectations to the real world. Defenses will figure him out, he’ll get banged up physically, he’ll make mistakes when he has to throw the ball into tight coverage. He’ll continue to fumble a lot.
Again, this assumes that he won’t improve at all—and, yet, he seemed to be improving as the season progressed. So wouldn’t the assumption would be that he’d continue to improve? Having said that, if he doesn’t improve very much, I agree with your assessment.
I don’t think the Jets would be good place. GB doesn’t seem to be a good fit, but I understand that the QB coach and McCarthy can work well with QBs, so that would be good for Tebow. Jacksonville might be a good place if they commit to building the team around him; plus, it seems like they don’t have much to lose.
Bobby said, Can’t believe I’m defending Tebow. From a diehard OU fan who wanted his head on a platter for beating us in the title game. That should prove I’m being objective!
Heh.
Whoa. Breaking news. Tebow traded to the Jets. Payton suspended for one year without pay. Not sure what this means for Sanchez but his tenure is probably up if he doesn’t win big this year. Too bad for Payton. Someone has to take the fall. It’s always the best of times and the worst of times for New Orleans. This might be the beginning of another long dry spell for them.
Rex Ryan coaching Tim Tebow. seems like an odd couple. I’m sure Tebow can handle it, because he seems like a pretty sturdy person. But it is very strange… and it might make for another tedious circus-like season for the Jets, when they were hoping for a more quiet season… go Giants!
What’s the saying? If you have two starting quarterbacks then you have no starting quarterback, or something to that effect. I feel sorry for the Jets. If they don’t turn it around Ryan may be looking for a new job in a year or two.
2 said, But it is very strange… and it might make for another tedious circus-like season for the Jets, when they were hoping for a more quiet season…
Yep. That’s what I foresee, too. If the Jets really believe Sanchez is their QB, or they at least believe he has a chance at becoming an elite QB, I can’t see how this move makes sense. I guess, if Tebow won’t play QB, then the trade makes more sense. I’d be disappointed, if that were the case, as I think it’s premature to end career as a QB.
But if the Jets are going to play him at QB, I think this could divide the team.
The ruling with Sean Payton is harsh, but I was expecting something like that. It certainly sends a message.
“Young wasn’t a very good passer (I’m thinking of when he first came over to the Niners), and ran a lot (which is one the reasons I thought he wouldn’t amount to much), but we all know what happened later.”
:)
Jazz, Jazz, Jazz . . .
Young’s QB rating his first year with the team was 120.8. His first year as the starter it was 101.8, which was still high enough to lead the league (and this was back when giants—Kelly, Marino, Moon, Aikman—still walked the earth). He also had the league high QB rating the following year, and the year after that . . . and the year after that . . . and again in ’96 and ’97. Even in college, His senior season at BYU, he completed 71.3% of his passes.
It’s not really a fair comparison, because the era was different, and Young had played for a USFL team, and then spent a couple of lost years in Tampa, but, as a passer at least, there’s no comparison.
By the way, Tebow is now a Jet.
“Again, this assumes that he won’t improve at all”
Of course he’ll improve, but he has a limited ceiling as a QB, and even if he does improve significantly, he’s still got to go through all that along the way.
If he had either a slow delivery OR wasn’t accurate, I could see him improving significantly. But he has a slow delivery AND isn’t particularly accurate. This suggests the root cause is physiological—a lack of elasticity. If that’s true, that’s going to be pretty hard to significantly alter without completely changing his body type.
Young’s QB rating his first year with the team was 120.8.
Well, gee, maybe I’m old. I just remember him tucking the ball in and running a lot. I still say he had one of the ugliest throwing motions of all time, though.
Of course he’ll improve, but he has a limited ceiling as a QB,…
But do you have any idea how high that ceiling is? I must confess that I don’t really understand how bad his throwing motion is. I can see that it isn’t good, but it doesn’t seem worst then some other QBs who have had success in the league. (Jay Schroeder also seemed to have a long wind-up.)
Yeah, Schroeder’s a good example of a guy who had some success despite really pretty bad mechanics (kinda like Cunningham), but those guys had big arms (at least in their primes).
“But do you have any idea how high that ceiling is?”
Here’s how I would look at it. If I’m an NFL team, you look at who you have, and you look at what Tebow seems able to do. Tebow completed less than 47% of his passes last year. Even if you can coach him up to the point that he’s 10% better (which is pretty optimistic), that would put him at 57%, which still puts him solidly in the bottom third of the league, but it makes him slightly more accurate (not adjusting for receiver drops and such) than (in ascending order) Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Christian Ponder, Curtis Painter, John Skelton, and Mark Sanchez . Then maybe you put him hypothetical above Colt McCoy based on Tebow’s mobilty.
Matt Parks