ditto The Artist
Scorsese for Best Director
@ Santino:
Most of what you said will happen…..The Artist received the most nominations and that usually indicates the Best Picture winner.
I’m not so sure about Meryl Streep..she is often nominated but hasn’t won in 30 years. It could be Michelle Williams…..
Adapted Screenplay…I’m going with Moneyball….Sorkin is a favorite.
The real bite is that I don’t care who wins any of this crap this year. I have no emotion about any of the nominees and it’s annoying that Gosling got overlooked again…he had 3 good performances this year that could have qualified him…..and while I haven’t seen Drive yet I fully expect it to be a solid film.
“(I don’t really care who wins in this category)”
Does anyone? ;-)
“The Artist received the most nominations and that usually indicates the Best Picture winner.”
Except Hugo received the most nominations.
//Except Hugo received the most nominations.//
Ooops…….
My money’s still on The Artist though……
“The real bite is that I don’t care who wins any of this crap this year.”
I agree. If it wasn’t for Billy Crystal, I wouldn’t even watch.
The Artist will sadly win best picture and director, overshadowing which was clearly the best picture of the year (and one of the few that are decent of that list) The Tree Of Life, but I’m guessing that Martin Scorcese and Hugo could be the surprising winners of the night
I’m both predicting and rooting for Hugo. When the hype clears in a few years, I guarantee it will be regarded amongst Scorsese’s best. Remember when everybody was grousing that The Departed didn’t deserve its award and it was really a ‘lifetime achievement’ trophy for Marty S.? Well, this film is very deserving and, if given, will be a genuine nod to some of his best work.
That said, I, too, am a fan of Malick’s Tree of Life, and I’m glad to see it getting this recognition. If it doesn’t win for cinematography, turn the sets off.
Hasn’t anybody noticed how many repeat acting nominees who have never won there are this year? This is Glenn Close’s sixth nomination, Brad Pitt’s and Kenneth Branagh’s fourth, Nick Nolte’s and Michelle Williams’ third, and the second each for Christopher Plummer, Janet McTeer, Viola Davis and Max Von Sydow. Ironically, the two front-runners in the lead categories, have both already won an Oscar, Streep with her seventeenth nomination/three wins, and Clooney with his seventh nomination/one win. It is simply wrong that Christopher and Max only have two!
I’m going to go out on a limb and, if not predict, at least urge anyone not to be surprised if Brad Pitt is named as the Best Actor. He had a big year in two big movies and both are nominated, he is in a producer capacity on both, and the NY Critics gave him their award. Plus, in historical Academy fashion, it may be viewed as “his” year, especially if the feeling is that Clooney already has an award. And, let’s not forget he’s fantastic in the movie.
I wish the same feeling would also spread for Glenn Close, but that’s a long-shot at best. If it’s not Streep, and I really hope it isn’t as this is more a performance of tics than of acting, I think it will be Davis. Glenn Close has become the modern Deborah Kerr, always nominated, never winning.
I think Plummer’s a lock as Sup. Actor, but Nolte could slip in.
If The Artist is going to place in these ‘major’ categories, it could be in the Sup. Actress slot with Ms. Bejo. I may be totally wrong, but the talk I’ve been hearing is all these nominations are going to be the prizes that film gets – the bloom has come off of its rose, and it’s not that respected other than as a curiosity.
Christopher – I agree that if Lubezki doesn’t win, throw your TV out the window.
It’s interesting to see how many repeat nominees there are but there’s also an unusual amount of first time nominees: Gary Oldman, Jonah Hill, Octavia Spencer, Jessica Chastain, Jean Dujardin, Rooney Mara, Demián Bichir, Bérénice Bejo, Melissa McCarthy. The most shocking is Oldman – how in the hell is this his first nomination? Crazy.
Best Picture
I think either The Artist or The Descendants will win this category. I won’t be sad, necessarily, if either win but damn, I just love Hugo so much. (Although I have this weird feeling that a Best Picture Win would taint the film somehow. Hmm…) I’m also still a teensy bit mad that Drive wasn’t even nominated, but I suppose I should just get over that.
Best Actor
I also think Clooney will win and I’m fine with that. I would also be fine with Brad Pitt although I would have rather he be nominated for Tree of Life.
Best Actress
I won’t even try to predict this category. I TRULY hope Meryl Streep does not win. I’m sure she’s great in the role, but fuck it, she’s great in everything, so I just can’t bring myself to care this time. I want Viola Davis to win. She’s the only part of The Help that I genuinely enjoyed and I love her in general.
Best Supporting Actor
I think Plummer will win and I hope he does. He was absolutely lovely.
Best Supporting Actress
I too have a feeling Spencer will win and once again I need to get over the fact that I would have rather Chastain nominated for Tree of Life. She was magnificent.
Best Director
I’d be perfectly content if Malick or Scorsese won this one.
Best Cinematography
Tree of Life, hands down.
Adapted Screenplay
Moneyball! It was almost poetic to me.
Original Screenplay
I still need to see A Separation. I’d laugh out loud if Bridesmaids won.
Best Foreign Film
Haven’t seen any of these. :(
I think Santino has nailed ’em.
It would be great if they gave Clooney the screenwriting award & Oldman the best actor award (looooong overdue after Sid & Nancy, The Contender, State of Grace, etc)
The Artist
Jean Dujardin
Viola Davis
Christopher Plummer
Melissa McCarthy
Best supporting actress is always a wild card. Don’t know why, but that’s the Oscar tradition. Best song has become a pathetic category, just sad.
“Who are you wearing?”
Well, the favorites tend to be well known, and they tend to win.
I’ve been hearing Viola Davis, but I would prefer Steep or Williams.
I will be thrilled if Oldman wins, but he won’t.
While I would pick “Tree of Life” for film and director, realistically I’m pulling for my second choice, Hugo, which might just be able to pull an upset (though I doubt it).
I only care about this as a gambling man.
Durjardin or Clooney? I can’t predict it.
And can somebody just watch the damn short films and tell me which will win?
Miasma -
Put all your money on Dujardin (although you won’t get much of a return at this stage).
You might as well mortgage your house and put it on The Artist for Best Picture.
There’s no way in hell Christopher Plummer isn’t winning Best Supporting Actor.
A big punt on Hazanavicious for best director wouldn’t go amiss.
If only you could find a betting site that will let you place accumulator bets on the Oscars…
@Scampi
Yeah, I know. Everything you said. I’m never sure with close calls like Dujardin/Clooney, I waffle so easily. Yeah, I guess Dujardin. Fine. CHRIST!
I think I have to change my predictions slightly.
I think Dujardin has the slight edge over Clooney and I think Viola Davis will beat Meryl.
People will vote for Dujardin because they voted for The Artist for best picture and will like to keep it consistent. This is my theory, anyways.
Remember, you’re talking about a group comprised of predominantly old, white men.
Santino, you’re insane if you think A Separation won’t win Foreign. No contest baby. None. I also think you are correct about Viola Davis.
I’m not sure about cinematography. I want to believe they’re smart enough to recognize Lubezki. It’s not impossible.
Miasma – I certainly hope that A Separation wins best Foreign Film. But remember, this is the same group of people that awarded the Oscar to The Secret in Their Eyes over The White Ribbon.
I think Chivo is a lock for cinematography. I don’t think there is any awards or critics group this year that hasn’t given him the award for The Tree of Life.
Oh I know – their selections for Foreign are always flat out insane. But all evidence points to A Separation, which I already sensed even before I read about it. You are right, though, if it didn’t win I would just choc it up to the Academy’s utterly backward history with Foreign films.
^And you know they love the Holocaust! I’m marking In Darkness on my Oscar ballot and just pray I’m wrong. :)
Ah, shit. You’re right :)
I think the winner of the Best Foreign Film category is more about exposure and access than anything else, which is why Secret In Their Eyes won over White Ribbon. A Separation has had a lot of both so although the voters are notorious for wonky decisions in this category I think this time A Separation will win.
I honestly can’t see Streep winning for Iron Lady (which was a horrible film fwiw). Davis is almost a lock for Best Actress, and I’d be very surprised if anyone beats Octavia Spencer for Supporting Actress.
This is the first year I truly couldn’t care less what wins any category from the nominations that we have. The weird thing is that for me this is the best year for films as a whole that I can remember for the longest time. Out of the seventy some 2011 releases I’ve seen there are at least twenty absolute top drawer films from around the world, and another dozen or so that are very good. Hardly any of these have been put forward for Oscar night though.
The Oscars is really only good for betting purposes these days, or I suppose it’s a fun night if you’re into fashion.
Do you guys realize John Williams has been nominated 47 effing times? And it’s not unusual for him to have two in a year.
Scampi – What do you mean by “exposure and access”? Do you mean that the film needs to have a lot of exposure (i.e. seen by a lot of people) and be accessible (i.e. easy to understand)? In the case of 2009, The White Ribbon was definitely getting exposure, having won big awards like Cannes and the Globes, although I understand it’s not the most accessible film. But The Secret in Their Eyes was the opposite – it had been seen by very few people however it’s very accessible and easy to understand. So in this case, it seemed access trumped over exposure.
Ditto the previous year, when Departures (a film even most critics had never heard of) won over well known films like The Class (which won at Cannes) and Waltz With Bashir (which won the Golden Globe and was the favorite by many to win).
I think that looking over the past couple years, films that are conventional and easily accessible to mainstream audiences will have a better shot at winning. In this case, I think In Darkness is much more accessible than A Separation for the simple fact that it’s a Holocaust film that we’ve seen a million times before. And more specifically, whatever is the frontrunner, the favorite, is usually the film that doesn’t win (see Pan’s Labyrinth).
I do hope I’m wrong though. I haven’t seen Footnote or Monsieur Lazhar yet but of the others I have seen, A Separation is by far the best.
“This is the first year I truly couldn’t care less what wins any category from the nominations that we have.”
This seems to be the general consensus from most of my friends. It was a great year for cinema but a bad year for Oscars.
Santino, I take your point but I just can’t believe it won’t be A Separation. Since it’s the Oscar Foreign winner… it’s literally impossible to predict… I recall being just shocked when The White Ribbon lost, but it taught me a valuable lesson. This year, somewhere, I get a different vibe and am going to risk my chips on the popular kid.
There are no good years for the Oscars, and if there are it’s sheer chance.
But gambling is fun!
^That’s true. Maybe once every ten years the Oscars have a good year and it’s usually by chance. We’ll see what happens on Sunday!
Santino -
By exposure I mean good word of mouth and publicity, and A Separation trumps any foreign film from 2011 as far as that goes. I think the main problem with the foreign film category is that most Academy voters watch few if any foreign films. Many I’m sure won’t even bother to watch the films, but as they have to fill the ballot paper in in full they’ll tick the box of the one they’ve heard of. As far as being easy to understand (although that’s not exactly what I meant) I think A Separation is pretty universal. Maybe I’m just rationalising all this because I thought it was such a good film and I wish it every success, but I’m sticking with A Separation.
From the way the winds seem to be blowing, Santino, I don’t think that once every ten years event will be happening this year.
Santino
Now that the nominations are out and we are all upset that all our favorites have been snubbed, we can now at least see who the potential winners are. In spite of the fact that people say there are no clear frontrunners this year and that there could be a lot of surprises, I actually think this might not end of being the case.
Here’s my predictions for the winners as well as who I think deserves to win:
Best Picture
The Artist – winner
The Tree of Life (my vote)
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Moneyball
War Horse
Best Actor
George Clooney – winner
Gary Oldman (my vote)
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Demián Bichir
Best Actress
Meryl Streep – winner
Glenn Close
Viola Davis
Rooney Mara
Michelle Williams
(I don’t really care who wins in this category)
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer – winner
Max von Sydow (my vote)
Kenneth Branagh
Jonah Hill
Nick Nolte
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer – winner
Bérénice Bejo
Jessica Chastain
Melissa McCarthy
Janet McTeer
(I don’t really care who wins in this category)
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius – winner
Terrence Malick (my vote)
Alexander Payne
Martin Scorsese
Woody Allen
Best Cinematography
The Tree of Life – winner (and my vote)
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants – winner
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (my vote)
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris – winner
A Separation (my vote)
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Best Foreign Film
In Darkness – winner
A Separation (my vote)
Footnote
Bullhead
Monsieur Lazhar