What will win Best Picture, The Artist or The Descendants?

The Golden Globes have established the 2 favorites for Best Picture. What decision will be made on Oscar night.

Why are you so obsessed with awards, Danny?

HF press and academy voters are different animals

from those choices Descendants

but honestly think Midnight in Paris will take it

IMO, likelihood:

The Artist 50%
Hugo 20%
The Descendants 20%
Midnight In Paris 9%
Other 1%

Despite as much as I hate Midnight in Paris (or perhaps because I hate it – it seems as a general rule, the film I dislike the most is the film that more often than not wins), I think Den is right.

Midnight in Paris does not have the Best Picture look. I can’t explain it. The Academy looks at what stands out from the others. To me, that would have to be The Artist for obvious reasons.

I think and kind of hopr The Artist wins. Id rather have something a bit different and interesting win.

They both suck but I think the Academy will lean towards The Artist. It’s the perfect kind of forgettable fare that the Oscars love.

@Santino
If more Silent film parodies come out, then “The Artist” won’t seem forgettable.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Clo… man, I can’t even finish typing it with a straight face.

I think Midnight In Paris is a great picture and The Artist is only a good one, but the latter happens to be the exact sort of thing the academy looks for. It’s basically a silent-styled Singin In The Rain. The academy likes ‘Smart melodramatic populist’. Midnight In Paris may be populist by Woody Allen standards, but not by Best Picture standards. The humor in The Artist is very general, the humor in Midnight In Paris is nerdy and esoteric.

I’ll be impressed if I end up liking The Artist as much as this:

It will probably be The Artist. The real result, however, is that in 20 years, people will say “The Artist won in the same year that Tree of Life came out, which makes it the worst film ever!”

No way The Artist will win. You people are all crazy. Even the Weinstein machine can’t get a silent film from France to win.

Hugo

Out of the obvious nominees, the only real choice is Hugo. (Though I have not watched Midnight yet).

If the world were just, it would be This is Not a Film. I can’t believe that beautiful film is not getting any mention. God damnit.

Shame….

Jk The Descendants will take it but The Artist will win more oscars. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marty win for Hugo but I do believe Woody might get the nod there. And this all does seem a bit ridiculous considering all the great movies released this year there shouldn’t be any clear cut winner (and really there isn’t ) But it def. shouldnt be The Artist and Midnight in Paris no matter how fun the two movies are.

The Descendants. If “Up in the Air” can get nominated, then “The Descendants” can win. “The Artist” is too stylish to win. Oscar will cater to the middle. In a perfect world, it would come down to “Tree of Life” and “Shame.”
On a side note: I love to hate the Oscars. If they started showing the proper appreciation of movies, I’d probably be left without a proper outlet for my anger. Violent crime would skyrocket.

Shame is a world of Meh.

The last shot of the film is the cheesiest shot of all time, and the rest is just a passable addiction feature which happens to have explicit sex.

I think you’re underestimating the Academy’s film nostalgia. The Artist can totally win.

@Ari

Normally I would agree with you, but this particular silent film from France happens to have the same plot as Singin In The Rain, and happens to be drippingly sentimental.

@ Jirin
I still haven’t seen it yet but there’s one big problem with this prediction. The Artist has grossed about 10 million thus far since its late November release. It will have a Golden Globes bump but the question should be what is its upper limit? Maybe $40-50 million? A silent French film has an upper box office limit no matter how crowd pleasing or sentimental. It’s only at about 200 screens but are they really going to open it on 1000+? I’m writing this still without seeing the film but you have to go with precedents. The Academy Awards almost invariably goes with a big box office success (generally speaking, films with plus $100 million grosses). The notable exception is The Hurt Locker ($17 million) but that was more a product of the David and Goliath underdog story against the heavy favorite, Avatar. Even No Country For Old Men grossed $75 million or so. This is also why The Descendants most likely won’t win either ($47 million but already on 800+ screens).

The Artist

The Artist. Although I Hear its a bit “Artsy” :p

The Artist is your prototypical Oscar movie – easy to digest and completely forgettable. I can’t think of a film more similar to The King’s Speech than The Artist.

The Descendants is forgettable too but it’s not as feel goody, which I think a lot of the elderly members of the Academy will hold against it.

How can you say that “The Artist” will be forgotten in a few years. It will win Best Picture and stand the test of time. Here’s a clip to prove it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPm0IuVylFU

Because it’s only been a couple months and I’ve already forgotten it. :)

I can’t see how people can forget a 21st Century silent film. It truly stands out of anything I’ve seen in today’s cinema. Trust me, as soon as the film sweeps the remaining awards in the season, it will resonate more with people, and eventually make it into the annals of legendary film If anything I think “The Descendants” will be forgotten by the end of this year alone. Any cliched family drama that looks like it could have been a Lifetime movie of the week, sure won’t be seen on Turner Classic Movies in the long run. I think if Clooney does win the Oscar, the film will be known as consisting of the shitty performance that beat 99% of the excellent male leading performances of that year {Similar to when Liz Taylor won for BUtterfield 8, 50 years ago}. Dujardin, Fassbender, Shannon, to name a few will be more remembered. Mark my word.

All style, no substance.

Those movies don’t usually stand the test of time.

The gimmick of it being silent won’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Is The Artist still out in theaters? I wouldn’t mind checking it out. If not, then I may have to view it through more dubious means hehe.